Submitted By jsears2003

Words 1013

Pages 5

Words 1013

Pages 5

Joe A. Sears

FIN/402

April 13, 2015

Richard E. Smith

Risk and Tradeoff Memo

To: Rainier Ekstrom

From: Joe A. Sears

Subject: Portfolio Selection and Investment Strategy According to risk and yield as well as the detailed assessment, the decision to select four investments was of high regards, in addition to making a choice to minimize risk, in addition portfolio diversification, which assisted in the reduced risks. In order to assist in making the correct decisions there are particular pieces of information of a company that is needed to help form the correct decision. Using this information assisted in arriving at selection of investments for Casta Bonita Ceramics.

The four investments I decided on are Desktop, Inc. Leviathan Defense, Trans conduit, Inc., and Goldstein & Delaney Bank. By using diversification, techniques will help to achieve the highest returns. Portfolio diversity is essential to be considered when making proper implementations and decisions.

The amount allotted for this portfolio is $800,000.00, amounts invested in each area of the portfolio is $216,327.00 in Desktop Inc., $175,939.00 in Levinthal Defense, $144,000.00 in Trans Conduit, Inc. and $221,348 Goldstein & Delaney Bank, totaling $ 757,614.00, with $42386 for cash Portfolio risk , Risk =17.19% with a return of 9.20%the Sharpe ratio is 25.86%.

It was essential to have a better continuing portfolio for better income opportunity that made it a great investment possibility. The “budget allotted was $800,000” (Bodie, Kane, Marcus, 2008); for that reason my job was to set aside money in a way ensuring the realization of maximization of the portfolio yield. Exact guidelines regarding the “portfolio risk mentioned it couldn't go beyond 22%” (Bodie, Kane, Marcus, 2008). To appraise the risk as well as yield I designed a reference to the “Sharpe ratio”.…...

...Determining the cost of equity and rate of return is an important financial principle. Company shareholders are able to make intelligent decisions when the information is readily available. This paper will describe three specific theories and models that yield the cost of equity. After providing a clear description of all three, I will focus on one particular model, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which is a simplistic approach to cost of equity. Then lastly, the CAPM will be applied to a few companies and discussed. Three Models There are several tools available to estimate the rate of return. Three of these tools are capital asset pricing model, the dividend growth model, and arbitrage pricing theory. Although similar, each has their distinct differences. The first model is the capital asset pricing model. This particular model “describes the relationship between risk and expected return, and it serves as a model for the pricing of risky securities.” (Investopedia, N.D.) It goes on to say that if the overall risk outweighs the return, investors should disregard as this would be a loss. CAPM is calculated by using the following formula: “Required (or expected) Return = RF Rate + (Market Return - RF Rate)*Beta” (Investopedia, N.D.) As shown, this calculation factors in a beta rate. The rule of thumb is, the larger the beta rate, the more risk. If the market is up (bull), and there is a high beta, the payout will be high. However, if the market is low...

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...Risk and return will be very central terms in our analysis and it is essential that the reader clearly understands the meaning of each term and how assets with different payout structures can be compared. General utility theory suggests that the average investor is risk averse. Given the same expected return of two assets with different risks, he would prefer the one with less risk. (This assumption may not be perfectly true for all individuals in all situations, but for the investor community as a whole it is probably true). For an asset with uncertain cash flows and payoffs, which are normally distributed, the mean of the distribution will be the expected return while the standard deviation forms some kind of “risk”. Choosing the “less risky” asset therefore comes down to choosing the asset with the lowest standard deviation in its payout distribution. An investor could also approach the problem from the other direction, choosing among assets with the same risk and then choose the asset with the highest expected return. Risk is usually defined as the volatility of returns, measured by standard deviation. The variance of a portfolio depends not only on the individual variances of the as- sets, but also on the co-variances between the components of the portfolio. As an extreme example, a portfolio consisting of two securities – a long position in a stock and with an appropriately chosen position in a put option on the same stock – will have......

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...1. Which asset would the risk-averse financial manager prefer? (See below.) a. Asset A. b. Asset B. c. Asset C. d. Asset D. 2. Which of the following statements best describes what would be expected to happen as you randomly select stocks and add them to your portfolio? a. Adding more such stocks will reduce the portfolio’s unsystematic, or diversifiable, risk. b. Adding more such stocks will reduce the portfolio’s beta. c. Adding more such stocks will increase the portfolio’s expected return. d. Adding more such stocks will reduce the portfolio’s market risk. e. Adding more such stocks will have no effect on the portfolio’s risk. 3. Stock A has a beta of 0.8, Stock B has a beta of 1.0, and Stock C has a beta of 1.2. Portfolio P has equal amounts invested in each of the three stocks. Each of the stocks has a standard deviation of 25%. The returns on the three stocks are independent of one another (i.e., the correlation coefficients all equal zero). Assume that there is an increase in the market risk premium, but the risk-free rate remains unchanged. Which of the following statements is correct? a. The required returns on all three stocks will increase by the amount of the increase in the market risk premium. b. The required return on Stock A will increase by less than the increase in the market risk premium, while the required return on Stock C will increase by more than the increase in the market risk premium. c. The required return of all stocks will remain......

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...vehicle in the next five years. The vehicle I am most interested in purchasing is the Ford Escape and at this time the 2012 Ford Escape is roughly around $21,440.00 for a base model. I would ideally like to buy this vehicle with a very small loan, and pay at least half of the cost of the vehicle as a down payment. While it might be best to pay full price for the vehicle as I have a very low credit scoring and it is hard for me to get approved for a loan without a co-signer, I know that if I would like to build up my credit rating I will need to at least take a loan out on half of the cost of the vehicle and make monthly payments on time for a few years. By using the Savings calculator available on Bankrate.com, and assuming a 0.78% rate of return on my savings for the next 5 years (as provided by the Treasury Department (USDT, 2011)), I would need to save $200.00 a month to reach my savings goal. Based on this data, I would need to save $200.00 x 12 = $2,400.00 per year. If I continued to save this amount then at the end of the five years I will have saved $12,234.90 to put as a down payment on my dream vehicle. Considering the time value of money to be the quantification of the value of a dollar over time, my regard for the money that I am saving says that I am much more interested in my dream vehicle than using that money for other purposes. Moreover, my dream car is worth more to me in the future than that money can be for me today as well as knowing that I was able......

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...Risk and Return Tradeoff Memo The construction portfolio process concludes to be very complex. Statistical past performance, industry knowledge, future potential and relying on insights that are personal are typically what analysts rely on within the market in order to arrive at the final list. Maximizing returns while minimizing risk is the goal every investor aims for. An evaluation of individual securities as well as risk return trade off within isolation and the risk return trade off contribution of the entire portfolio. The managing and constructing of a portfolio simulation outlining the fundamentals within the construction of the portfolio in regards to the risk return trade off as well as the relationship among investment performance and strategy will be the structure of this memo. Casa Bonita Ceramics has selected me as the treasury analyst to determine the best stocks and allocate company resources in order to construct a successful portfolio. My decision will be detailed within this memo of the simulation, communicate the Sharpe ratio in the relation it has to investment decision as well as give recommendations for organization changes in the investment strategy to improve the investment performance. Simulation Decisions Given the excess cash generated in the previous year, Casa Bonita is considering the invest $800,000 in the stock market. Eight stocks have already been chosen. Given the high return consideration without the risk of capital loss in sight,......

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...RISK –RETURN TRADE -OFF ON THE NIGERIAN STOCK EXCHANGE OLOWE, OLUSEGUN BANKING AND FINANCE DEPARTMENT COVENANT UNIVERSITY OTA. NIGERIA E-mail: oreoba2000@yahoo.com oreoba2000@gmail.com 1 ABSTRACT Expected excess returns on bonds and stocks, real interest rates, and risk shift over time in predictable ways. Furthermore, these shifts tend to persist for long period. Changes in investment opportunities can alter the risk-return trade-off of bonds, stocks, and cash across investment horizons, thus creating a term structure of the risk-return trade-off. This term structure can be extracted from a parsimonious model of return dynamics, which was illustrated with data from the stock market in Nigeria using the VAR model in the light of the reforms in the financial services sector coupled with the stock market crash and the global financial crisis. Using annual returns over the period of 1981 to 2008, volatility persistence, asymmetric properties and riskreturn relationship are investigated for the Nigerian stock market visà-vis the calendar effects on stock market performances. The degree of volatility persistence and leverage effect supporting the work of Nelson (1991) was visible in the relationship between value index of stocks, market capitalization and the volume of transactions. Key words: Calendar effect, Volatility, Stock market, Financial Reforms, Global Financial crisis, Volatility persistence, VAR, Risk-return tradeoff 2 INTRODUCTION The major......

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...Period Return HPR=(Ending price-Beginning price+Dividend during period one)/(Beginning price)=(P_1-P_0+D_1)/P_0 Dividend Yield: % return from dividends Expected Return and Standard Deviation E(r)=∑_s▒〖p_s r_s 〗 σ=√(∑_s▒〖p_s (r_s-E(r))〗^2 ) Expected end-of-year value of the investment =Dividend+Ending Price Arithmetic and Geometric Averages Arithmetic Mean (AM) =(∑▒HPR)/N Better predictor of future performance Geometric Mean (GM) = π(1+HPR) )^(1/N)-1 Better measure of past performance GM < AM Sharpe Ratio Sharpe Ratio for Portfolios =(Excess Return)/(SD of Excess Return)=(R_i-R_f)/(σ(R_i-R_f)) Measure the attraction of an investment portfolio by comparing its reward (risk premium) and risk (SD) Excess return per unit of risk Reward-to-variability (volatility) ratio Historical Returns on Risky Portfolios Asset classes that provide higher return are more risky Return: Small Stocks > Large Stocks > Bonds > Bills Risk: Small Stocks > Large Stocks > Bonds > Bills Risk Premium Extra reward (returns) for bearing the risk of investing in equities, rather than in low risk investments, such as bills or bonds Risk Premium=E(r)-r_f Asset Allocation: Four Step Process Step 1: Assessing Risk Tolerance Step 2: Measuring Portfolio Risk and Return Step 3: Modeling Investment Options Step 4: Optimal Asset Allocation Step 1: Assessing Risk Tolerance Dominated Assets Easy to remove from consideration Always choose higher risk premium...

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...Exercises E8-1. Total annual return Answer: ($0 $12,000 $10,000) $10,000 $2,000 $10,000 20% Logistics, Inc. doubled the annual rate of return predicted by the analyst. The negative net income is irrelevant to the problem. E8-2. Expected return Answer: Analyst 1 2 3 4 Total Probability 0.35 0.05 0.20 0.40 1.00 Return 5% 5% 10% 3% Expected return Weighted Value 1.75% 0.25% 2.0% 1.2% 4.70% E8-3. Comparing the risk of two investments Answer: CV1 0.10 0.15 0.6667 CV2 0.05 0.12 0.4167 Based solely on standard deviations, Investment 2 has lower risk than Investment 1. Based on coefficients of variation, Investment 2 is still less risky than Investment 1. Since the two investments have different expected returns, using the coefficient of variation to assess risk is better than simply comparing standard deviations because the coefficient of variation considers the relative size of the expected returns of each investment. E8-4. Computing the expected return of a portfolio Answer: rp (0.45 0.038) (0.4 0.123) (0.15 0.174) (0.0171) (0.0492) (0.0261 0.0924 9.24% The portfolio is expected to have a return of approximately 9.2%. E8-5. Calculating a portfolio beta Answer: Beta (0.20 1.15) (0.10 0.85) (0.15 1.60) (0.20 1.35) (0.35 1.85) 0.2300 0.0850 0.2400 0.2700 0.6475 1.4725 E8-6. Calculating the required rate of return Answer: a. Required return 0.05 1.8 (0.10 0.05) 0.05 0.09 0.14 b. Required return 0.05 1.8 (0.13 0.05) 0.05 0.144 0.194 c. Although the risk-free rate does......

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...__________ risk of the portfolio decreases until 10 to 20 securities are included. The portion of the risk eliminated is __________ risk, while that remaining is __________ risk * o diversifiable; nondiversifiable; total o relevant; irrelevant; total o total; diversifiable; nondiversifiable o total; nondiversifiable; diversifiable The higher an asset's beta, * o the more responsive it is to changing market returns o the higher the expected return will be in a down market o the lower the expected return will be in an up market o the less responsive it is to changing market returns __________ probability distribution shows all possible outcomes and associated probabilities for a given event * o A continuous o An expected value o A discrete o A bar chart A beta coefficient of 0 represents an asset that * o is less responsive than the market portfolio o has the same response as the market portfolio o is more responsive than the market portfolio o is unaffected by market movement The financial manager's goal for the firm is to create a portfolio that maximizes return in order to maximize the value of the firm * o False o True The security market line (SML) reflects the required return in the marketplace for each level of nondiversifiable risk (beta) * 212 Gitman • Principles of Finance, Eleventh Edition o False o True The portion of an asset's risk that is attributable to firm-specific, random causes is called * o systematic......

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...Investment and Portfolio Management: Risk and Return Marvin Brown is a savvy investor who is always looking for a sound company to include in his portfolio of stocks and bonds. Being somewhat risk-averse, his main objective is to buy stock in firms that are mature and well-established in their respective industries. Wal-Mart is one of the stocks Marv is currently considering for inclusion in his portfolio. Wal-Mart has four major areas of business: traditional Wal-Mart discount stores, Supercenters, Sam's Clubs, and international operations. Although Wal-Mart was established over 50 years ago, it continues to achieve growth through expansion. The Supercenter concept, which combines groceries and general merchandise, is extreme success as 75 new Supercenters were opened last year alone. Another 95 will be opening over the next two years. Sam's clubs have also seen success as 99 Pace stores (Pace is one of Sam's former Competitors) were converted to Sam's stores in 1995. In addition to taking over competitor stores, Sam's also opened 22 new stores of its own. Internationally, the picture is equally as rosy. In Canada, 122 former Woolco stores were converted to Wal-Mart discount stores. Expansion has reached Mexico and Hong Kong as well, as 24 Clubs and Supercenters and 3 "Value Clubs" were established, respectively. Wal-Mart plans to continue its reign as the world's largest retailer through expansion by developing the previously discussed 95 Wal-Mart discount stores, 12 new......

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...Chapter 11 Return and Risk: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Copyright © 2015 by the McGraw-Hill Education (Asia). All rights reserved. 11.1 Individual Securities The characteristics of individual securities that are of interest are the: Expected Return Variance and Standard Deviation Covariance and Correlation (to another security or index) 11-1 11.2 Expected Return, Variance, and Covariance Consider the following two risky asset world. There is a 1/3 chance of each state of the economy, and the only assets are a stock fund and a bond fund. Scenario Recession Normal Boom Rate of Return Probability Stock Fund Bond Fund 33.3% -7% 17% 33.3% 12% 7% 33.3% 28% -3% 11-2 Expected Return Scenario Recession Normal Boom Expected return Variance Standard Deviation Stock Fund Rate of Squared Return Deviation -7% 0.0324 12% 0.0001 28% 0.0289 11.00% 0.0205 14.3% Bond Rate of Return 17% 7% -3% 7.00% 0.0067 8.2% Fund Squared Deviation 0.0100 0.0000 0.0100 11-3 Expected Return Scenario Recession Normal Boom Expected return Variance Standard Deviation Stock Fund Rate of Squared Return Deviation -7% 0.0324 12% 0.0001 28% 0.0289 11.00% 0.0205 14.3% Bond Fund Rate of Squared Return Deviation 17% 0.0100 7% 0.0000 -3% 0.0100 7.00% 0.0067 8.2% E (rS ) 1 (7%) 1 (12%) 1 (28%) 3 3 3 E (rS ) 11% 11-4 Variance Scenario ...

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...CHAPTER 13 RISK, RETURN, AND THE SECURITY MARKET LINE Answers to Concepts Review and Critical Thinking Questions 1. Some of the risk in holding any asset is unique to the asset in question. By investing in a variety of assets, this unique portion of the total risk can be eliminated at little cost. On the other hand, there are some risks that affect all investments. This portion of the total risk of an asset cannot be costlessly eliminated. In other words, systematic risk can be controlled, but only by a costly reduction in expected returns. 2. If the market expected the growth rate in the coming year to be 2 percent, then there would be no change in security prices if this expectation had been fully anticipated and priced. However, if the market had been expecting a growth rate other than 2 percent and the expectation was incorporated into security prices, then the government’s announcement would most likely cause security prices in general to change; prices would drop if the anticipated growth rate had been more than 2 percent, and prices would rise if the anticipated growth rate had been less than 2 percent. 3. a. systematic b. unsystematic c. both; probably mostly systematic d. unsystematic e. unsystematic f. systematic 4. a. a change in systematic risk has occurred; market prices in general will most likely decline. b. no change in unsystematic risk; company price will most likely stay constant. c. no change in systematic risk;......

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...Return, Risk and The Security Market Line - An Introduction to Risk and Return Whether it is investing, driving or just walking down the street, everyone exposes themselves to risk. Your personality and lifestyle play a big role in how much risk you are comfortably able to take on. If you invest in stocks and have trouble sleeping at night, you are probably taking on too much risk. (For more insight, see A Guide to Portfolio Construction.) Risk is defined as the chance that an investment's actual return will be different than expected. This includes the possibility of losing some or all of the original investment. Those of us who work hard for every penny we earn have a hard time parting with money. Therefore, people with less disposable income tend to be, by necessity, more risk averse. On the other end of the spectrum, day traders feel that if they aren't making dozens of trades a day, there is a problem. These people are risk lovers. When investing in stocks, bonds or any other investment instrument, there is a lot more risk than you'd think. In this section, we'll take a look at the different kind of risks that often threaten investors' returns, ways of measuring and calculating risk, and methods for managing risk. Expected Return, Variance and Standard Deviation of a Portfolio Expected return is calculated as the weighted average of the likely profits of the assets in the portfolio, weighted by the likely profits of each asset class. Expected return is......

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...Chapter 5 Risk and Return 5.1 RATES OF RETURN McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Learning objectives Use data on the past performance of stocks and bonds to characterize the risk and return features of these investments Determine the expected return and risk of portfolios that are constructed by combining risky assets with risk-free investment in Treasury bills Evaluate the performance of a passive strategy McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Holding Period Return The holding period return (HPR)(보유기간수익률) Depends on the increase (or decrease) in the price of the share over the investment period as well as on any dividend income. Rate of return over a given investment period McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Example 5.1 Suppose you are considering investing some of your money, now all invested in a bank account, in a stock market index fund. The price of a share in the fund is currently $100, and your time horizon is one year. You expect the cash dividend during the year to be $4, so your expected dividend yield is 4%. Your HPR will depend on the price one year from now. Suppose your best guess is that it will be $110 per share. The your capital gain will be $10 (110-100), so your capital gains yield is $10/$100=.10 or 10%. The total holding period rate of return is the sum of the......

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...RISK AND RETURN Risk is existing in every business decision. For Eg: Selection of an asset for production department, developing a new product etc., Therefore decision maker has to asses the risk and return before taking any financial decision. To do so finance manager must learn to assess risk and return. Risk can be measured in different ways. Before going to learn the computation and return it is require understanding the followings: 1. Cash Flows: financial assets are expected to generate cash flows and risk of Financial assets assessed in terms of the variations of its expected cash inflows. 2. Risk can be measured either on stand alone basis or in a portfolio context 3. Classification of risk: the risk of assets is divided into two parts. a. Diversifiable Risk b. Market Risk. Diversifiable risk is a company’s’ specific risk and can be completely eliminated through diversification. On the other hand market risk arises from market movements and which cannot be eliminated through diversification. 4. Investors are Risk Averse: (unwilling/opposed) Generally investors are risk averse. It does not mean that investors do not buy risk assets, they buy risk assets, when they promise extra return for bearing extra risk. Risky investments provide relatively high return. Risk: Risk is the chance of financi8al loss or the variability of returns associated with a given assets. Assets that are having higher chances of loss ar viewed as more......

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