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Nassim Nicholas Taleb

U.S.A. $26.95
Canada $34.95

is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpre­ dictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9 / 1 1 . For Nassim Nicholas
Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.



Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know.
We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate oppor­ tunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible."
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool our­ selves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this reve­ latory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and ben­ efiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applica­ tions, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to…...

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Case Study

... Penang until his retirement in 1980. HCF started out as a family owned business with all of its shares being held by the Tan family. Peter prepared to bid for contract manufacturing deals with the European fashion houses. HCF started its first fully equipped factory in Penang in November 1974. HCF very quickly established itself as a high quality manufacturing of both men’s and women’s clothes. In July 1980, HCF opened its new factory in Butterworth. After 10 years, HCF opened two more factories in 1990 in Jitra, Kedah and 1995 in Thailand which is set up with wholly owned subsidiary Haute Couter (Thailand) Pte. Ltd to operate the Chieng Mai factory. Issues and Problems HCF was in a dilemma when Jeffrey Cheong received a letter from KiKi and Houida, two European Fashions House that they may be looking to China to ‘contract manufacture’ for them as the price there were very competitive. HCF is not match to China growing economy and this new development will definitely cause the downfall of HCF. Jeffrey had garnered the assistance of his senior management team to brainstorm on possible options HCF can look at. Although acknowledging that looking into China is in inevitable, the team was divided in the approach to be taken. First proposal is to expand into China with two possible ways either setting up HCF own factory that was large enough to manufacture clothing for its existing customers or manufacture in China in a joint venture with a Chinese manufacturer. However the...

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...problems that I can analyzed. Firstly, Kiki and Houida which are two of major loyal customers of Couture Fashions Bhd (HCF)’s were writing to Jeffrey to inform him that they may looking to China to “contract manufacture” for them as the prices there were very competitive. Second, the previous adverse perception of “Made in China” labels had slowly changed as China now manufactured clothes that are higher quality at substantially lower operating costs. There were some recommendation that are going to implemented which are proposal to expand to China, proposal to close down HCF’s factories in Malaysia and Thailand or manufacturing its own label for Malaysian and Asean market. Statement of Problems HCF may lose their big major loyal customers which is Kiki and Houida as they may looking to China to “contract manufacture” for them as the prices there is cheaper. Apart from that, nowadays China was produce high quality product with cheaper price so then makes the perception of people about the “made in China” goods changed to a good view. This is because of the labour cost in China is cheaper rather than Malaysia. HCF now is very confusing to make decision but based on the problems they have to make accurate decision. According to these problems they have to deeply make consideration of their short term and long terms decision. As far as I am concerned, the short term problem is HCF may lose their big major loyal customers which is Kiki and Houida. For long term, they may......

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The Medicated Child “It’s really to some extent an experiment, trying medications in these children of this age.” One of the medications DJ’s taking is Risperdal the side effects are tics, drooling, excessive eating and some kids can gain weight up to 100LBs and get diabetes. There has been a sharp increase when it comes to diagnoses and treatment of mental illness in children according to the film. It was once believe that adults were diagnoses with bipolar and it only existed in adults. Frontline reported, “Most of the doctors are following the theories of Dr. Beiderman, theorized that “many children have been misdiagnosed in having attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.” A Stanford University researcher Dr. Kiki Chang defends Biederman theory about children being misdiagnosed. Dr. Kiki Chang believes there’s a large controversy centered around the fact if a nine year old child is having a large temper tantrums and is not able to control himself. “If this happens a few times a week is that coming from bipolar disorder?” The Food and Drug Administration approve all of the drugs that are solely being tested on adults. There is a lack of information when it comes to studies on children psychiatric medication and it leaves the pediatricians guessing on what to use. In the past it was hard to get the drug companies to study children. Then President Bill Clinton offered the pharmaceutical Companies a generous patent extensions incentive to do studies on children medications to what......

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Evolution of Language

...Ramachandran and Hubbard conducted an important experiment on the effects of synesthesia. Test subjects were presented with two meaningless objects: one spiky and pointed, the other round and curved. The subjects were asked to the label the shapes as either “kiki” or “bouba”, 95% of the people naming the spiky object “kiki”, and the curved one “bouba” (Ramachandran, Edward, “Synaesthesia–A Window Into Perception, Thought and Language”). Ramachandran and Hubbard have given several explanations for this result. First, the shape of the lips as the words are formed seem to reflect the meaning. With the vowels of “bouba”, the lips are more curved and open than in “kiki”. Also, the “b” sounds in “bouba” are “continuants”, which means they are made with continuous air flow, resulting in a much smoother sound, while the “k”s of “kiki” break up the airflow and make the word more jarring (Robson, “Language's missing link”). Bringing all the evidence together, it appears there is basis for the claim that sound symbolism was influenced the origin and evolution of language. Ramachandran and Hubbard believe sound symbolism provides the necessary stepping stone between animal cries and and verbal communication. If the angular sound of “kiki” seemed to fit a sharp, jagged rock, for example, that word might have emerged as the obvious shorthand form. “Sound symbolism helped to get the first words off the ground” (Robson, “Language's missing link”). Discontinuity Theories The......

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China Doll

...Issues The main issue of the case is the fact that Jeffrey Cheong is not sure whether to move the HCF operations to China or just manufacturing its own label for the Malaysian and Asean Market. Since he got the letters from KiKi and Houida, he needs to review his strategy quickly as both of the company are their best clients since its inception. STAGE 2 PART I: Decisions Key player | Jeffrey Cheong | No. | Main decision | Decision criteria | Alternatives | 1 | Decide whether to move HCF operations to China or not. | 1. if expand to china, HCF need to either operate their own factory or they can joint venture with Chinese manufacturer2. If they are going to stay in Malaysia, they need to shut down the factory in Chieng Mai which gonna risk them lose the China’s influence | 1. close down factory in Chieng Mai and Jitra2. produce their own label in new area such as Kuala Lumpur3. outsourcing | 2 | continue to retain HCF current customer base; KiKi and Houida | 1. Jeffrey need to consider moving to China and can supply the clothes at lower prices2. If they move to China, HCF will receive a reasonable resale value as its equipment were renewed from Butterworth and Penang factories.3. Substantial profit in selling the land as the factories located in fast developing area | 1. find new customers2. outsourcing3. close down Malaysian operations completely | Key player | Peter Tan | No. | Main decision | Decision criteria | Alternatives | 1 | He is keen...

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Re: Surrealism 1937.[11] Paris[edit] In July 1921, Man Ray went to live and work in Paris, France. He soon settled in the Montparnasse quarter favored by many artists. Shortly after arriving in Paris, he met and fell in love with Kiki de Montparnasse (Alice Prin), an artists' model and celebrated character in Paris bohemian circles. Kiki was Man Ray's companion for most of the 1920s. She became the subject of some of his most famous photographic images and starred in his experimental films, Le Retour à la Raison and L'Étoile de mer. In 1929, he began a love affair with the Surrealist photographer Lee Miller. Salvador Dalí and Man Ray in Paris, on June 16, 1934 making "wild eyes" for photographer Carl Van Vechten For the next 20 years in Montparnasse, Man Ray was a distinguished photographer. Significant members of the art world, such as James Joyce, Gertrude Stein, Jean Cocteau,Bridget Bate Tichenor,[12] and Antonin Artaud, posed for his camera. Man Ray was represented in the first Surrealist exhibition withJean Arp, Max Ernst, André Masson, Joan Miró, and Pablo Picasso at the Galerie Pierre in Paris in 1925. Important works from this time were a metronome with an eye, originally titledObject to Be Destroyed, and the Violon d'Ingres,[13] a stunning photograph of Kiki de Montparnasse,[14] styled after the painter/musician Ingres. Violon d'Ingres is a popular example of how Man Ray could juxtapose disparate elements in his photography to generate meaning.[15] In 1934, surrealist......

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Social Networking Making a Dream Come True

...The new advancing generation is changing people to be able to fit into the mainstream to recreate themselves online specifically to become this false self of themselves. Everyone has been given that freedom of speech to become that person he or she imagines to be, but some people take advantage of that. When it comes to online they begin to lose their morals and ethics. We are at fault of this when we put too much out there that could be used against us such as in job interviews, college applications, and new relationships we encounter every day. As shown by Yoshino, he says "covering has enjoyed such a robust and stubborn life because it is a form of assimilation" (Yoshino 552). A 14 year old girl called "Kiki Kannibal" exposes herself to the social networking to feel part of the world and gives it away when she faces all the publicity of her online life turns to an "endless, soul sucking performance." (Erdely). This comes to show that there is a online world that changes us to create this fantasy world we so desire from what we lack in the real world. Although it can be argued that social media allows people to honestly express themselves, most people use social media to perpetuate a false self; in doing so, they strive to be one with themselves and society by the advancing technology that it offers, compromise their beliefs and values for attention, and have difficulty discerning what they post online along with what's really being told. Facebook, Instagram, Twitter,......

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... Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data ISBN 978-0-916152-17-8 This report is published by the Ethics Resource Center (ERC). All content contained in this report is for informational purposes only. The Ethics Resource Center cannot accept responsibility for any errors or omissions or any liability resulting from the use or misuse of any information presented in this report. ©2012 Ethics Resource Center. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Additional copies of this report and more information about permission and licensing may be obtained by calling 703-647-2185, or by visiting The Ethics Resource Center (ERC) is America’s oldest nonprofit organization devoted to independent research and the advancement of high ethical standards and practices in public and private institutions. Since 1922, ERC has been a resource for public and private institutions committed to a strong ethical culture. ERC’s expertise informs the public dialogue on ethics and ethical behavior. ERC researchers analyze current and emerging issues and produce new ideas and benchmarks that matter — for the public trust. For more information, please contact: Ethics Resource Center 2345 Crystal Drive, Suite 201 Arlington, VA 22202 USA Telephone: 703.647.2185 FAX: 703.647.2180 Website: Email: NBES Sponsors The 2011 National Business Ethics Survey® was conducted with the generous support of: Principal......

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Hcf Bhd

...from current factories * high operations costs, lower margins Opportunities: * Expansion to China * move its contract manufacturing to China to lower manufacturing costs * possibility of getting new clients as international fashion houses move to source contract manufacturing from China * Create HCF’s own labels with existing resources * to penetrate the fashion markets in Malaysia and Asean region Threats: * Rapid growth in China’s textile industry * able to offer low prices due to low operation costs * able to manufacture higher quality clothes at lower operating costs * attracting international fashion houses * Possible loss of 2 major clients - Kiki and Houida are looking into China for lower prices in contract manufacturing; Kiki and Houida account for 43% of total sales in 2008; * Possible loss of other clients – will follow this trend of sourcing in China Recommendations: Moving contract manufacturing to China Joint venture with Celestial Clothes: * conduct surprise field visit – to see actual picture of how the factory is running * investments, terms and conditions must be spelled out clearly * be clear on expectations * set terms to safeguard the clientele base * exit terms * relationship building – business partners, suppliers, trade parties, management and employees * identify project team to manage and monitor – also to learn/study......

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Personal Experience

...challenges I’ve met was to enter Marathon in 2012. I made a hard decision to take part in this big match. Starr and Kiki, who understood me very well, decided to join me. We were not well-trained runners, with almost no experience of long-distance running. Everything appeared to be a dream; we did not imagine that we could overcome it. All in all, this special experience made me more perseverant. It is true that you have trillions of choice to attend one sport event, and the reason why I choose the Marathon was kind of special. Not only simply because it was challenging but also because it was set in my lovely hometown, Chongqing. Chongqing, which has a meaning of “double celebrations” in Chinese, is in the south of China and has a population of 31 million. I was born there, and I lived in Chongqing for nearly 20 years. For me, Chongqing is like a lovely mother with whom I am emotionally involved. I could not think of anyone more appropriate than her to witness this challenge for me. Like mellow wine, friendship has a magical fragrance that is addicting, and the friendship between Starr, Kiki and me was no exception. They are the best people I’ve ever met. Starr was talkative and she had a good sense of humor. Every time I got in trouble, she talked with me and did whatever she could think of to make me laugh. In comparison to Starr, Kiki was more of a good listener. Kiki was a big fan of art and literature. She sent her favorite poem collection, the Birds, written by......

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Aggressive Driving

...Mark Nowatnick ENC 1101-24 Peter Zuppardo Essay November 21, 2014 How We Act Behind Close Curtains Many of us act a different way when we are behind something that no one can truly see us. I relate Vanderbilt’s article and Kiki article on how they misuse the new technology. In the Kiki essay she was posting pictures of herself online and no one really knew who it was, until some people hacked into her page. Even when she was posting pictures and video of herself which made people comment nasty things talking about her. If those people that comment mean things talking about her where not just a profile and was someone face to face we usually wouldn't say things like that. Also in the Vanderbilt’s essay he talks about the road rage and the different types of communication while driving. Many people while driving get very upset with other drivers if they need to be somewhere quickly, or even if the person is driving slower then they want to drive, which cause the person that is behind the person that is going slow to speed up and cut them off. I have seen a lot of incidents where people cut someone off and they want to get pay back on they so they try to cut them off back, then it turns into an accident. Citizens do not understand how dangerous cars and truck are when we are behind the wheel, they can hurt someone very badly plus even kill them. We as people need to understand that our ethical compilations need to help us from being cyborgs, to understand that we have to...

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...und sah zu dem anderen Bett hinüber. „Philipp, darf ich Kiki reinlassen? Seine Stimme klingt so traurig.“ „Wenn er nicht zu viel Krach macht, kann er meinetwegen reinkommen. Jetzt tut mir der Kopf nicht mehr so furchtbar weh.“ Jack stieg aus dem Bett und stakste etwas unsicher zur Tür. Die Kinder hatten Grippe gehabt und fühlten sich noch sehr schwach. Philipp war besonders schwer krank gewesen. Er hatte den lebhaften Papagei Kiki nicht im Zimmer ertragen können. So tierlieb er auch war, hätte er ihm am liebsten Pantoffeln, Bücher oder was sonst noch greifbar war an den Kopf geworfen. Jetzt watschelte Kiki mit gesenktem Kopf ins Zimmer. „Komm rein, mein armer Kerl“, sagte Jack mitleidig, und sofort flog ihm der Papagei auf die Schulter. „Du verstehst es natürlich nicht, warum wir dich rausgeschmissen haben. Aber wenn einem fast der Kopf zerspringt, ist Lärm nicht gerade angenehm. Philipp ist fast verrückt geworden, als du neulich den spuckenden Motor nachmachtest.“ 3 „Hör bloß auf!“ Philipp schauderte in Erinnerung an den entsetzlichen Lärm. „Ich glaube, ich werde nie mehr über Kiki lachen können.“ Er hustete und zog sein Taschentuch unter dem Kopfkissen hervor. Kiki hustete ebenfalls, aber nur gedämpft. Jack lächelte. „Tu nicht so, als ob du auch Grippe hättest, Kiki. Das glaubt dir doch keiner.“ „Grippe“, wiederholte Kiki. „Grippe! Wisch dir die Grippe ab!“ Dann lachte er leise. „Hör mal, Kiki, wir sind noch nicht gesund genug für deine Witze.“......

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Kiki Paper

...1. The types of market research that Kiki should employ to determine the market potential for the magazine include using various primary and secondary research methods. Kiki Magazine has a magazine that targets the 9-to 14-year-old female market segment. Kiki magazine hopes to guide the young readers to acquire her own sense of style that directly mirrors her personality. Kiki magazine also tries to help tweens be comfortable in her own skin, and develop confidence from her own unique style. In order to determine the market potential for magazine, there needs to be a lot of data collected along with time and effort put into the research. In order to make sure that the marketing is effective, the magazine company will need to use a variety of research methods and develop a strategic plan. What I would do to help the magazine analyze the potential would be to look into what tweens are interested in right now. Looking to see what the girls watch on television such as Disney network, or where these kids shop at in the mall can give away a lot of information. The magazine should then try to incorporate what these interests are into the reading material, which will be presented to these girls. There are internal environmental factors that the company needs to consider which include the marketing mix model. This includes the 4 P’s, which are price, promotion, product and place. The external environmental factors that the company needs to consider would be taking a look at the......

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Evaluation of Mutual Fund Performance

...EVALUATION OF MUTUAL FUND PERFORMANCE TUGAS IV MAY 1, 2016 KIKI NINDYA ASIH AND NICKO ALBART DMB 10 ABSTRACT This article attempts to measure performance of three stock-based mutual funds in Indonesia over the period of January 1, 2015 – July 30, 2015 using daily data. Each of the stock-based mutual fund was picked randomly from foreign, SOE, and local investment houses. The performance evaluation employs different methods namely Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen indices. Analysis revealed that different methods yield different result. In order to enrich evaluation, Modigliani-risk adjusted performance metric and qualitative approach were included in the analysis. By using the mix criteria, it was found that the best investment is Schoder 90 Plus Equity Fund followed by Manulife Dana Saham and Mandiri Investa Dynamic Equity. This findings show that even though stock market performed negatively over the period, stock-based mutual fund may yield slightly better than the market. Key Words: Mutual Fund, Sharpe Index, Treynor Index, Jansen Index, M2. I. INTRODUCTION This paper aims at measuring portfolio performance of stock-based mutual funds from three different investment manager over the period of January 1, 2015 – July 30, 2015. Three randomly mutual fund was chosen, namely Schoder 90 Plus Equity Fund (Schroder Investment Management Indonesia), Mandiri Investa Dynamic Equity (Mandiri Manajemen Investasi), and Manulife Dana Saham (Manulife Aset......

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The Secrets of the Brain denial about it. Here's what I call Martian alphabet. Just like your alphabet, A is A, B is B, C is C. Different shapes for different phonemes, right? Here, you've got Martian alphabet. One of them is Kiki, one of them is Buba. Which one is Kiki and which one is Buba? How many of you think that's Kiki and that's Buba? Raise your hands. Well, it's one or two mutants. (Laughter) How many of you think that's Buba, that's Kiki? Raise your hands. Ninety-nine percent of you. 21:44Now, none of you is a Martian. How did you do that? It's because you're all doing a cross-model synesthetic abstraction, meaning you're saying that that sharp inflection -- ki-ki, in your auditory cortex, the hair cells being excited -- Kiki, mimics the visual inflection, sudden inflection of that jagged shape.Now, this is very important, because what it's telling you is your brain is engaging in a primitive -- it's just -- it looks like a silly illusion, but these photons in your eye are doing this shape, and hair cells in your ear are exciting the auditory pattern, but the brain is able to extract the common denominator. It's a primitive form of abstraction, and we now know this happens in the fusiform gyrus of the brain, because when that's damaged, these people lose the ability to engage in Buba Kiki, but they also lose the ability to engage in metaphor. 22:36If you ask this guy, what -- "all that glitters is not gold," what does that mean?" The patient says, "Well, if it's metallic and shiny, it......

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